Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
